The Market Rasen Mail is reporting that academics expect Conservative Member of Parliament for the Gainsborough Constituency, Sir Edward Leigh MP, will retain his seat in Parliament at the General Election on Thursday, 7th May 2015.

Dr.Chris Hanretty (University of East Anglia) and Dr. Nick Vivyan (Durham University) have recently published a book on constituency opinion. They have joined Dr. Benjamin Lauderdale (London School of Economics) to produce website which attempts to forcast the result of next year's General Election, using polling and demographic data.

Conservative Sir Edward Leigh has been given a probablilty of winning the seat of 100%, an absolute certainty, at the General Election, and expect him to be returned in a landslide, according to the academics' forcast.

Based on studies of previous election cycles they expect Sir Edward to win with 44%, with Labour in second place on 19%. Whilst the Liberal Democrats would fall from second in 2010 to third on 17% and UKIP would come in fourth on 16%. Sir Edward Leigh's Agent, Giles McNeill, said:

"As with the news from Ladbrokes at the end of October, which gave a clear indication that Sir Edward was the favourite to win the seat next year, this work, by respected academics, reinforces that assessment. Certainly our own internal calculations show a similar sort of result. The positive response we get on the doorstep is also encouraging. We will, however, not be made complacent by such predictions and will work hard for every elector's vote on polling day."